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Bracing For Election Uncertainty: The Tax And Regulatory Angles
Scott Eckel
7 October 2024
The following article examines how family offices and ultra-high net worth individuals should position themselves in the final weeks of the US elections, given all the uncertainties as to the outcome and potential impact on regulations. This piece is written by Scott Eckel, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs, at Charles Schwab. Eckel, who has been at the firm since 2012, and worked for more than two decades in the policy field in Washington, DC, is also a speaker at the Tenth Family Wealth Report Family Office Investment Summit 2024, taking place on November 13, in New York. This article gives a flavor of what his comments will be in the coming event. Eckel will be joined by Laura McDowell, director of family office for Schwab Asset Management, on a panel at the conference. Either way, next year promises one of the biggest tax debates in decades. But right now, it is worth reminding clients who are concerned about some of these tax proposals that Congress ultimately must make the tax law changes. There'll be plenty of time to review and analyze the proposals, which will likely be very different from whatever the presidential candidates say once they get through the process in Congress.
At the intersection of policy, politics, the economy, and the markets are issues that family office advisors and their ultra-high net worth investor clients are paying especially close attention to as we head into the final weeks of the presidential election season.
Washington continues to be a hotbed of dysfunction. Both Democrats and Republicans are eagerly anticipating the election, and neither party wants to give the other an advantage that could be used on the campaign trail. And with so much noise and polarization about almost every topic, it’s an emotional and uncertain time. Clients may have questions about what’s happening and how it will impact their current and future financial situations, while advisors are also grappling with the implications of operating their firms.
Here are a few key areas that we are watching closely.
Tax overhaul
The bill is due on tax reform, with a major policy overhaul expected in 2025 when many of the 2017 tax cuts expire. Both parties see the looming battle as an opportunity for a much broader reconsideration of the tax code, and the presidential nominees are both talking about it on the campaign trail.
So far, the policy pronouncements have been sparse in detail. That’s not unusual for a campaign but only increases client uncertainty.
On the one hand, former President Trump has said he will extend all the 2017 tax cuts that are set to expire in 2025 and eliminate taxes on, among other things, Social Security benefits. He also says he will lower the corporate rate to 15 per cent and has proposed across-the-board tariffs.
Meanwhile, Vice President Harris recently proposed new or enhanced tax breaks for newborns, first-time homebuyers, and small businesses. She is also proposing an increase to the individual income tax rate to 39.6 per cent on income above $400,000 for single filers and $450,000 for joint filers and a capital gains tax rate of 28 per cent for taxable income above $1 million.
Regulatory landscape
As often is the case as the end of an administration approaches, regulatory agencies in Washington are very busy trying to push key proposals across the finish line before the election. With a possible change in administration looming, they want to get final rules in the books.
At least 14 major rules on the agenda of the SEC and other agencies will directly impact investment advisors. These include the proposed expansion of the custody rule, requirements for how RIAs should perform due diligence on third-party vendors, cybersecurity and predictive data analytics rules, and new proposals related to anti-money laundering.
Collectively, this activity represents an unprecedented pace of rulemaking over the past four years and is leading to a barrage of interlocking rules that will require complicated and expensive compliance, which will impact RIAs' ability to serve their clients.
Proposed rules cannot be considered in isolation, and regulators must examine their cumulative impact. We must have good regulations that protect investors and the industry without burdening small businesses like advisory firms.
Advisors should also be transparent with clients about the regulatory environment and its impact on their working relationships and investment strategies. Clear communication can help build trust and ensure that clients understand the steps a firm needs to take to remain compliant.
About Chevron
Finally, there was a significant development at the end of June that could have profound implications for all industry regulation. The Supreme Court voted to end the so-called "Chevron doctrine," a 40-year-old standard that required courts to defer to the expertise of regulatory agencies in interpreting vague or unclear laws from Congress if those regulations were "reasonable." Instead, the Court said that courts must "exercise their independent judgment in deciding whether an agency has acted within its statutory authority" when writing rules.
While it will take years to sort out the implications, the change will likely significantly reduce the power of regulatory agencies, increase legal challenges against regulations across every sector of the economy, and result in the courts being the ultimate arbiter of the regulatory playing field.
Many of the rules mentioned above that are currently pending or recently approved appear to be in danger of eventually being rejected by the courts. What’s more, with the upcoming change in presidential administrations, it is also clear that there could be an increased debate between one administration and another about what existing regulations mean, contributing to an even more uncertain regulatory landscape.
What to do now
Maintaining open and transparent communication with clients is essential. You play a critical role in helping them understand what’s important amidst the noise and steadying their concerns.